在温室气体变暖下,东太平洋厄尔尼诺现象的变化增加
Wenju Cai1,2, Guojian Wang3,4, Boris Dewitte5,6,7,8
1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China. wenju.cai@csiro.au.
Nature
|December 14, 2018
概括
未来的温室气体变暖可能会增加厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 的变化,特别是在东太平洋 (EP-ENSO). 这种由海洋分层驱动的强化可能会导致更极端的天气事件.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 海洋学
- 大气科学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素.
- ENSO主要展出两种类型:中太平洋 (CP-ENSO) 和东太平洋 (EP-ENSO).
- 在温室气体变暖下,ENSO特别是EP-ENSO的未来变化是不确定的.
研究的目的:
- 调查ENSO,特别是EP-ENSO在未来温室变暖下可能发生的变化.
- 评估有关ENSO预测的气候模型之间的一致性和差异.
- 了解驱动潜在ENSO转移的物理机制.
主要方法:
- 分析模拟不同的ENSO模式的CMIP5气候模型.
- 对EP-ENSO进行海面温度 (SST) 异常模式和中心的检查.
- 在气候模型中研究海洋分层和海洋-大气合.
主要成果:
- 在大多数CMIP5模型中,EP-ENSO的SST可变性预计会大幅增加.
- EP-ENSO SST 异常模式和中心显示了显著的模型间差异.
- 由于温室气体变暖而增加的上层海洋分层增强了海洋与大气的合,导致了更高的SST变化.
结论:
- 温室气体变暖可能会加剧EP-ENSO的SST变化.
- 这种加剧表明强烈的EP-厄尔尼诺事件的频率增加.
- 随着EP-ENSO变化的增加,全球极端天气事件的频率可能会增加.
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