在尺度内和跨尺度的级联政权转移
Juan C Rocha1,2, Garry Peterson3, Örjan Bodin3
1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden. juan.rocha@su.se.
概括
生态系统可能会经历关键的转变, 这项研究表明,许多制度转变可能引发连锁效应,影响未来的转变,并需要综合管理策略.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 环境科学
- 复杂的系统
背景情况:
- 生态系统容易发生巨大的,突然的,持续的关键转变,称为政权转变.
- 多重调节之间的相互作用及其潜在的级联效应在很大程度上仍未被探索.
- 了解这些相互作用对于预测生态系统对环境变化的反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查不同政权如何相互影响.
- 区分多米诺效应 (单向依赖) 和隐藏的反 (双向相互作用) 在级联调节中.
- 将这些级联效应与共享驱动因素引起的相关性进行比较.
主要方法:
- 分析了30个已记录的系统转换,这些系统以网络形式呈现.
- 识别和比较双向调节组合以检测结构上的相互依赖.
- 影响级联效应可能性的因素评估,例如跨级别的相互作用.
主要成果:
- 大约45%的双向调节组合表现出可信的结构相互依赖.
- 根据相互作用的类型 (多米诺效应与隐藏反) 发生级联效应的情况有所不同.
- 跨度相互作用被确定为影响级联效应概率的关键因素.
结论:
- 政权的转变并非单独发生;许多政权表现出相互依赖,可能导致连续的效应.
- 生态系统的管理策略必须考虑这些潜在的联系,以有效地应对关键的转变.
- 区分不同类型的级联效应对于准确的预测和管理至关重要.
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