二十一世纪冰盖融化的全球环境影响
Nicholas R Golledge1,2, Elizabeth D Keller3, Natalya Gomez4
1Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand. nicholas.golledge@vuw.ac.nz.
政府政策可能会导致冰盖大量融化,影响全球气候和海平面. 这项研究揭示了融化水对海洋循环和南极冰流的影响,
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 冰川学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 目前的政府政策预计到2100年全球将升温3-4°C,导致冰盖融化增加.
- 之前的气候模型 (CMIP5) 没有完全纳入冰盖排放, 忽略了关键的气候反机制.
研究的目的:
- 调查格陵兰和南极冰盖融化的气候影响.
- 评估融水对海洋循环和全球温度变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 通过对格陵兰岛和南极冰盖的模拟.
- 基于卫星测量最近冰块质量变化的受限模型.
主要成果:
- 格陵兰的融化水极大地减缓了大西洋的翻转循环.
- 南极的融水形成一个反循环,
- 由于未来的冰盖融化, 预计到2100年海平面上升25厘米.
结论:
- 冰盖融化对气候和海平面产生了以前未经定量化的重大影响.
- 模型的不确定性凸显了对准确气候预测的持续观察和多模型评估的需要.
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