历史变暖对海洋渔业生产的影响
Christopher M Free1,2, James T Thorson3,4, Malin L Pinsky5
1Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA. cfree14@gmail.com.
概括
气候变化正在对海洋渔业生产力产生负面影响. 这项研究显示,由于海洋变暖,从1930年到2010年,最大可持续产量下降了4.1%,影响了全球粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学
- 气候科学
- 渔业科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在全球范围内改变海洋息地.
- 这些变化对渔业生产率和粮食生产的影响尚不清楚.
- 了解这些影响对于可持续的渔业管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化海洋变暖对海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物种群生产力的影响.
- 评估气候变化对潜在海洋粮食生产的净影响.
- 确定影响人口应对变暖的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了温度依赖的种群模型.
- 分析了124个物种和38个生态区域的235个种群.
- 在1930年至2010年的最大可持续产量 (MSY) 变化估计中使用后投.
主要成果:
- 变暖对不同的人口产生了显著的积极和负面影响.
- 生态区域,分类学,生命历史和开发历史解释了反应变化.
- 在1930年至2010年期间,评估种群的总体MSY下降了4.1%.
- 五个生态区域的MSY损失为15%至35%.
结论:
- 海洋变暖显然正在降低海洋渔业的生产力.
- 为了有效的长期粮食供应,渔业管理战略必须纳入气候变化的影响.
- 对于未来的渔业结果来说, 考虑在温暖的海洋中的生产力变化是必不可少的.
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