1961年至2016年全球冰川质量变化及其对海平面上升的贡献
M Zemp1, M Huss2,3, E Thibert4
1Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. michael.zemp@geo.uzh.ch.
Nature
|April 10, 2019
概括
在主要冰盖之外的冰川对海平面上升有很大影响, 这种持续的冰川融化对全球海平面的影响比以前估计的要大, 在本世纪的某些地区可能几乎消失.
科学领域:
- 冰川学与气候科学
- 地球系统科学
- 冰层研究
背景情况:
- 除了格陵兰岛和南极冰层之外,冰川覆盖了广的地区,
- 冰川的退缩是气候变化的关键指标,影响地区水资源和全球海平面.
- 以前的质量变化估计依赖于有限的现场数据和粗略的卫星观测,面临数据稀缺和空间表示的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提供冰川质量平衡和它们对全球海平面上升的贡献的最新估计.
- 通过先进的推断方法,进一步了解冰川质量损失率.
- 将目前的冰川质量损失与主要冰盖的贡献和海平面的整体上升进行比较.
主要方法:
- 冰川学和地质学观察结果的推断.
- 分析2006年至2016年的区域质量变化率.
- 将几百个冰川的数据与区域面积估计相结合.
主要成果:
- 冰川在1961年至2016年间为全球平均海平面上升贡献了27±22毫米.
- 最近 (2006年至2016年) 的质量损失率在每年 -0.1至 -1.2米的水当量之间.
- 这相当于每年海平面贡献量为335±144千兆 (0.92±0.39毫米/年),可能高于此前报告.
结论:
- 冰川的质量损失是目前海平面上升的重要因素,
- 冰川的质量损失速度相当于格陵兰冰盖,超过南极冰盖.
- 2100年以后的海平面上升将受到威胁.
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