绘制2000年至2017年非洲撒哈拉以南地区的艾滋病毒流行情况
Laura Dwyer-Lindgren1, Michael A Cork1, Amber Sligar1
1Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nature
|May 17, 2019
概括
高分辨率地图显示了撒哈拉以南非洲的人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 患病率的显著局部变化. 这些详细的空间估计对于有针对性的艾滋病毒/艾滋病干预至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 空间分析
背景情况:
- 人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 在撒哈拉以南非洲造成重大疾病负担.
- 之前的研究表明艾滋病毒患病率存在相当大的局部差异.
- 在整个非洲大陆,高空间分辨率的亚国家级艾滋病毒流行数据仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲地区以5x5公里的分辨率调查艾滋病毒发病率的国内变化.
- 估计2000年至2017年成人 (15-49岁) 中艾滋病毒的流行率和艾滋病毒感染者的数量.
- 突出艾滋病毒流行趋势的局部差异,而这些差异被国家层面的分析所掩盖.
主要方法:
- 艾滋病毒流行数据的空间分析.
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲的5x5公里分辨率估计艾滋病毒的流行率.
- 在2000年至2017年间对艾滋病毒流行变化的时间分析.
主要成果:
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲地区发现艾滋病毒发病率在国内有很大差异.
- 在2000年至2017年期间,在艾滋病毒流行率的变化方向和速度上观察到显著的局部差异.
- 发现国家层面的分析掩盖了艾滋病毒趋势的关键局部差异.
结论:
- 对艾滋病毒流行情况进行精细的空间和时间估计对于了解疾病负担至关重要.
- 这些高分辨率估计为精确准控制艾滋病毒感染的干预提供了有价值的工具.
- 对于撒哈拉以南非洲地区有效的艾滋病毒/艾滋病控制策略来说,应对当地变异至关重要.
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