绘制Plasmodium vivax的全球特有性和临床负担,2000年至2017年:空间和时间建模研究
Katherine E Battle1, Tim C D Lucas1, Michele Nguyen1
1Malaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|June 24, 2019
概括
从2000年至2017年,全球疟疾病例下降了41.6%,但近年来进展已停滞不前. 尤其是在不稳定的地区.
科学领域:
- 全球健康
- 传染性疾病
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 尽管Plasmodium vivax对全球健康构成重大负担,但它的分布和趋势尚不清楚.
- 对于国家疟疾计划,特别是旨在消除疟疾的计划,准确评估P. vivax的流行性至关重要.
- 这项研究提供了2000年至2017年的P. vivax临床负担的第一个全球地图.
研究的目的:
- 绘制全球疟疾的临床负担和时间趋势.
- 为消除疟疾策略提供P. vivax特有性和疾病影响的最新评估.
主要方法:
- 使用空间和时间建模方法,调整常规疟疾监测数据的偏差.
- 使用社会经济指标来生成P. vivax临床负担的时间序列.
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲整合贝叶斯地理空间模型和P. falciparum数据以创建精细的全球预测.
主要成果:
- 在2000年至2017年期间,P.vivax疟疾的全球负担下降了41.6%,从2450万例降至1430万例.
- 在美洲 (56.8%),东南亚 (50.5%) 和西太平洋 (51.3%) 观察到显著下降.
- 近年来进展趋于平稳,在受政治和经济不稳定影响的地区出现增长.
结论:
- 全球在减少P.vivax负担方面取得了实质性的进展,但某些地区的停滞下来的下降和增加的负担表明消除疟疾的挑战.
- 这些发现支持全球监测系统,并可为有针对性的诊断和治疗策略提供信息.
- 优化干预措施至关重要,特别是在面临不稳定和P. vivax影响仍然很高的地区.
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