绘制Plasmodium falciparum的全球流行,发病率和死亡率,2000年至2017年:一个空间和时间建模研究
Daniel J Weiss1, Tim C D Lucas1, Michele Nguyen1
1Malaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|June 24, 2019
概括
自2000年以来,全球疟疾控制显著减少了菌病例和死亡人数. 高分辨率地图显示进展,但强调需要加强疟疾消除工作的地区.
科学领域:
- 全球健康
- 流行病学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS)
背景情况:
- 自2000年以来,疟疾控制干预措施已经减少了全球的发病率和死亡率.
- 地理空间分辨率数据和高分辨率地图越来越多地用于准疟疾控制工作.
研究的目的:
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲更新和完善Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) 寄生虫率和临床发病率的模型.
- 通过使用高分辨率的共变表面,对全球P. falciparum寄生虫率,发病率和死亡率进行估计.
- 创建P. falciparum疟疾死亡率的第一个全球高分辨率地图以及更新的全球流行和发病地图.
主要方法:
- 根据调查数据,更新并改进了撒哈拉以南非洲的P. falciparum寄生虫率和临床发病率模型.
- 适用于撒哈拉以南非洲以外的疟疾流行国家常规监测数据的生态缩小.
- 通过将发病率数据与生命记录和口头尸检数据联系起来,推导出死亡率估计.
主要成果:
- 在2005年至2017年期间,P. falciparum的发病率下降了27.9%,死亡率下降了42.5%.
- 尽管P. falciparum病例在2005年至2017年间有所下降,从2320万例降至1939万例,死亡人数从925800例降至618700例.
- 2017年,撒哈拉以南非洲占病例的79.4%,死亡率为87.6%,其中90.1%的人口居住在流行地区.
结论:
- 高分辨率的P. falciparum地图是全球疟疾政策和控制计划的关键资源.
- 减少疟疾负担的进展显而易见,但某些地区的发病率趋于平稳或上升表明所取得的进展很脆弱.
- 在持续高负担或近期发病率上升的地区需要加强消除工作.
相关概念视频
01:08Prevalence and Incidence
1.7K
In statistical epidemiology and health sciences, two essential metrics—prevalence and incidence—are fundamental for understanding disease dynamics within a population. These measures enable public health officials, epidemiologists, and researchers to assess the burden of diseases, allocate resources effectively, and design impactful public health policies and interventions.
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
1.7K
01:50Global Climate Change
28.8K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
28.8K
01:21Types of Reports II: Incident or Occurrence Report
1.2K
An Incident or Occurrence Report in a healthcare setting is a crucial document used to record any unexpected occurrence that may or may not have affected a patient, employee, or visitor. Such reports are critical to improving patient safety and include all details leading up to and including the event.
Purposes:
In the healthcare industry, reports play a crucial role in documenting incidents within an agency. The primary objective of these reports is to ensure patient safety, uphold the...
Purposes:
In the healthcare industry, reports play a crucial role in documenting incidents within an agency. The primary objective of these reports is to ensure patient safety, uphold the...
1.2K
01:30Introduction to Global Positioning System
495
The Global Positioning System (GPS) revolutionized positioning on Earth, providing precise location data through satellite ranging. The GPS system was developed in 1978 by the U.S. Department of Defense for military use, and it became available for civilian applications in 1983, transforming fields including navigation, fleet management, and time synchronization for telecommunications systems.GPS consists of satellites in medium Earth orbit, about 20,200 kilometers above the surface,...
495
01:28Global Regulatory Systems
624
Global regulatory systems in bacteria enable rapid and coordinated responses to environmental changes by integrating sensory inputs with gene expression, ensuring efficient adaptation to fluctuating conditions. Key global regulatory mechanisms include regulons, two-component systems, sigma factors, and secondary messengers.Regulons and Global RegulatorsA regulon is a collection of genes and operons controlled by a common global regulator. These regulators enable bacteria to prioritize resource...
624
01:26Errors in Global Positioning System
349
Global Positioning System (GPS) technology has revolutionized navigation and positioning, but its accuracy is often compromised by various errors. These errors, stemming from environmental, satellite, and receiver-related factors, require careful mitigation to ensure reliable performance across applications.Atmospheric ErrorsGPS signals travel through the Earth’s ionosphere and troposphere, introducing delays which affect accuracy. The ionosphere is strongly influenced by charged particles,...
349