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现有能源基础设施的承诺排放危及1.5°C的气候目标

Dan Tong^1,2, Qiang Zhang³, Yixuan Zheng^2,4

¹Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

|July 2, 2019

概括

现有和计划中的化石燃料基础设施将排放846千兆二氧化碳 (CO2),超过将全球变暖限制在1.5°C的剩余碳预算. 这些基础设施的提前退役或改造对于实现气候目标至关重要.

科学领域:

气候科学
环境工程
能源政策

背景情况:

全球努力旨在通过在2050年之前将人为二氧化碳 (CO2) 净排放量降至接近零来稳定平均温度.
化石燃料能源基础设施的持续扩张将阻碍未来的二氧化碳排放,挑战气候目标.
估计现有和计划的基础设施的承诺排放对于评估气候目标的可行性至关重要.

研究的目的:

估计2018年现有化石燃料能源基础设施的承诺二氧化碳排放的区域和部门模式.
分析这些排放对运行寿命和时间表的敏感性.
评估碳排放基础设施的经济影响和提前退役的可能性.

主要方法:

从2018年开始使用现有化石燃料能源基础设施的详细数据集.
基于历史运营,假设寿命和利用率的累计二氧化碳排放.
现有和拟建 (计划中的,允许的,正在建设中的) 发电厂的承诺排放量.

主要成果:

据估计,现有基础设施的二氧化碳排放量为658千兆,其中一半以上来自电力部门.
中国,美国和欧盟分别约占这些排放量的41%,9%和7%.
现有和拟议的基础设施 (846千兆二氧化碳) 超过了将全球变暖限制在1.5°C的剩余碳预算.

结论:

几乎没有新的二氧化碳排放基础设施可以实现"巴黎协定"的目标.
现有基础设施可能需要提前退役或采用碳捕获技术进行改造.
在电力和工业部门可能会有成本效益的提前退休,这取决于负担得起的非排放替代品.

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