对"长期麻疹诱导的免疫调节增加了儿童传染病总体死亡率"的评论的回应
Michael J Mina1, Bryan T Grenfell2,3, C Jessica E Metcalf2
1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health and Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. mjmina@bwh.harvard.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 13, 2019
概括
麻疹免疫失忆的持续时间估计不受发病周期的显著影响. 在高死亡率波动的小群体中难以检测免疫失忆症.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 免疫学
背景情况:
- 麻疹的发病率呈现周期性模式.
- 估计麻疹引起的免疫失忆的持续时间已引起争论.
- 之前的研究表明,周期性会对免疫性记忆丧失的持续时间产生影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估麻疹发病频率对免疫失忆持续时间估计的影响.
- 在较小,高死亡率的群体中评估免疫失忆的可检测性.
主要方法:
- 对麻疹发病率数据的统计分析.
- 模拟以区分周期性效应和免疫信号.
- 在不同规模和死亡率的群体中模拟免疫失忆检测.
主要成果:
- 周期性对检测到的免疫失忆信号的影响微不足道.
- 麻疹免疫失忆的持续时间为2至3年.
- 免疫性失忆症在很大程度上是无法检测到的,在小群体中死亡率有显著的波动.
结论:
- 麻疹免疫失忆的持续时间不是发生周期性的因素.
- 在特定的人口动态中检测免疫失忆是具有挑战性的.
- 可能需要进一步的研究来了解不同流行病学环境中的免疫失忆症.
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