用全球地球系统模型进行季节性到多年性海洋生态系统预测
Jong-Yeon Park1,2,3, Charles A Stock2, John P Dunne2
1Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. jongyeon.park@jbnu.ac.kr.
概括
地球系统模型 (ESM) 现在可以预测海洋生态系统的变化,包括叶绿素波动和鱼类捕获. 这些预测有助于社区适应气候变化,并支持适应性海洋资源管理.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态
- 气候科学
- 地球系统建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化对海洋生态系统和依赖性社区产生重大影响.
- 预测生态系统的变化对于适应和弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估基于地球系统模型 (ESM) 的海洋生物化学预测的技巧.
- 评估这些预测在预测生态系统转变和支持资源管理方面的潜力.
主要方法:
- 使用新开发的基于ESM的海洋生物地化学预测.
- 将预测与来自卫星的叶绿素数据进行比较
- 预测变量与捕鱼变化之间的研究关系.
主要成果:
- 在许多地区,ESM的预测巧妙地预测了季节性到多年性叶绿素波动.
- 预测技能与模拟厄尔尼诺-南方振荡和营养异常的反应有关.
- 大型海洋生态系统的年间捕捞变化可以从预测的叶绿素和海面温度中预测.
结论:
- 基于ESM的海洋生态化学预测为生态系统动态提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这些预测显示了动态海洋资源管理和生态系统弹性增强的潜力.
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