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经常观察到大地震和小地震的相同发作
1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. ide@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
Nature
|September 6, 2019
概括
大型地震与较小的地震有相似的破裂过程,特别是在俯冲区. 这表明可以预测级联破裂, 但预测最终地震大小的能力有限.
科学领域:
- 地质学
- 地震学
- 地震科学
背景情况:
- 地震破裂的增长对于了解地震危险至关重要.
- 预测地震的大小和行为对于预警和预测至关重要.
- 最近的研究表明大地震和小地震的破裂过程之间存在潜在的相似之处.
研究的目的:
- 调查大地震和小地震之间的破裂过程的相似性.
- 确定这些相似之处是否常见和可预测,特别是在俯冲区.
- 评估地震预警和预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 系统地比较15年来东北海道的地震记录.
- 分析了大约10万个地震事件,重点关注不同级别的地震.
- 使用交叉相关性分析量化事件相似性.
主要成果:
- 确定了80个非常相似的和390个非常相似的大 (M>4.5) 和小 (M <4.0) 地震.
- 在距离长达15年的海底地震中观察到很大的相似性.
- 发现只有其他大型地震类型的前震和余震表现出相似性.
结论:
- 不同大小的俯冲地震之间频繁发生类似的破裂过程表明重复的级联破裂.
- 这表明了沿着板块界面的层次结构.
- 地震大小的预测仍然很有限,尽管位置和潜在的大小范围可以推断出来.
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