全球对大自然对人类贡献的建模
Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer1,2, Richard P Sharp3, Charlotte Weil3
1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. bchaplin@stanford.edu.
概括
全球变化威胁着大自然提供清洁水和授粉等基本服务的能力. 未来的情景预计数十亿人面临着更大的风险, 但可持续发展可以显著减轻这些影响.
科学领域:
- 生态系统服务评估
- 全球环境变化建模
- 生物多样性和人类福祉
背景情况:
- 全球变化需要快速评估大自然对人类的贡献.
- 关键的生态系统服务包括水质监管,沿海保护和作物授粉.
研究的目的:
- 模拟全球关键生态系统服务的现状和未来情景.
- 评估土地使用和气候变化对自然贡献的影响.
- 通过可持续发展量化潜在的风险降低.
主要方法:
- 全球生态系统服务提供细度建模.
- 土地使用和气候变化影响的情景分析.
- 评估人类需求与自然的能力.
主要成果:
- 大自然满足人类需求的能力正在下降.
- 可能有多达50亿人面临水污染和授粉不足.
- 数以亿计的人在各大洲面临越来越多的沿海风险.
结论:
- 持续的生物多样性丧失对人类的福祉构成严重威胁.
- 可持续发展方案可以将风险降低3至10倍.
- 迫切需要采取行动,为后代提供生态系统服务.
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