科罗拉多河的流量随着气候变暖导致的反射雪的减少而减少
1U.S. Geological Survey, Princeton, NJ, USA. cmilly@usgs.gov.
概括
河流排放对气候变暖非常敏感,由于蒸发的增加,科罗拉多河流量每摄氏度下降9.3%. 预计降水可能无法抵消这种干旱趋势,
科学领域:
- 水文学
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 河流排放对气候变暖的敏感性不确定, 阻碍了适应.
- 科罗拉多河对经济活动至关重要,
- 了解管理流程对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 解决河流排放敏感度估计的差异.
- 在变暖下控制河流排放的物理过程.
- 为了预测未来科罗拉多河流域的水资源.
主要方法:
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟方法.
- 采用了辐射感应的水文模型.
- 分析了气候系统对蒸发和雪地覆盖的影响.
主要成果:
- 每年平均排放量每升温9.3%下降.
- 主要原因是雪的流失和太阳反射的增加.
- 预计降水增加不太可能完全抵消热力学诱导的干燥.
结论:
- 河流排放对气候变暖非常敏感.
- 由于气候变暖造成的干旱造成严重水资源短缺的风险日益增加.
- 有效适应气候变化需要了解这些水文敏感性.
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