非洲国家对进口COVID-19的准备和脆弱性:一项建模研究
Marius Gilbert1, Giulia Pullano2, Francesco Pinotti3
1Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.
Lancet (London, England)
|February 24, 2020
概括
非洲国家面临COVID-19进口风险. 虽然高风险国家表现出适度的应对能力,但其他国家则需要为2019年新型冠状病毒疾病的检测和制提供紧急资源优先.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生安全
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生准备工作
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情已在全球蔓延,在 12 个国家有本地传播.
- 非洲面临COVID-19进口的风险,埃及确认了一个病例.
- 有效控制COVID-19取决于国家卫生系统的能力.
研究的目的:
- 评估非洲国家对COVID-19进口的准备和脆弱性.
- 根据来自中国的航空旅行量来评估COVID-19引入的风险.
- 分析国家检测和应对疫情的能力.
主要方法:
- 根据从感染的中国省份到非洲的航空旅行数据估计的进口风险.
- 通过世卫组织国际卫生法规监测和评估框架评估国家准备情况.
- 使用传染病脆弱性指数衡量国家的脆弱性.
- 根据中国特定地区的风险情况对国家进行聚类.
主要成果:
- 进口风险最高的国家 (埃及,阿尔及利亚,南非) 拥有中等到高的应对能力.
- 中等风险国家 (尼日利亚,埃塞俄比亚,苏丹,安哥拉,坦桑尼亚,加纳,肯尼亚) 具有可变能力和高度脆弱性.
- 确定了与中国特定省份 (广东,福建,北京) 相关的三个国家集群.
结论:
- 非洲国家正在加强对COVID-19的准备.
- 对于中等风险,准备不足的国家来说, 紧急分配资源,监督和能力建设至关重要.
- 优先考虑这些领域将有助于检测进口病例,并限制2019年新型冠状病毒的传播.
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