COVID-19 和意大利:接下来会发生什么?
Andrea Remuzzi1, Giuseppe Remuzzi2
1Department of Management Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Dalmine, Italy.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 18, 2020
概括
由于COVID-19的流行,意大利的医疗保健系统面临压力,重症监护病房已经接近容量. 预测显示,需要医院床位等资源来管理不断升级的SARS-CoV-2感染.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 严重急性呼吸系统冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的全球快速传播需要紧急的卫生系统准备.
- 意大利面临的重大挑战是管理越来越多的需要重症监护的SARS-CoV-2肺炎患者.
研究的目的:
- 分析意大利SARS-CoV-2感染的趋势.
- 预测对重症监护资源的需求.
- 为卫生当局和政治领导人提供有效的资源分配信息.
主要方法:
- 意大利每日报告的SARS-CoV-2患者重症监护人数分析 (2020年3月1日至11日).
- 基于指数增长模式的感染趋势的推断.
- 与中国湖北省的疫情模式进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在2020年3月1日至11日期间,意大利的重症监护患者占活跃感染者的9%至11%.
- 持续的指数级增长预计将在一周内感染3万名患者,到4月中旬需要多达4000张医院床位.
- 趋势可能会逆转,但由于各种制策略而不可预测.
结论:
- 由于COVID-19的爆发,意大利医疗保健系统面临着迫在眉的容量挑战.
- 包括人员和床位在内的紧急资源分配对于管理不断升级的局势至关重要.
- 国际比较突出了基于公共卫生干预的疫情轨迹的变化.
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