在过去的千年中,ENSO对火山强迫没有一致的反应
Sylvia G Dee1, Kim M Cobb2, Julien Emile-Geay3
1Rice University, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Houston, TX 77005, USA. sylvia.dee@rice.edu.
概括
这项研究发现,大型火山爆发对厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 的影响微弱且微不足道. 气候模型可能会高估ENSO对火山强迫的敏感性.
科学领域:
- 古气候学
- 气候科学
- 海洋与大气的动态
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 显著影响全球气候模式.
- 目前尚不清楚ENSO对外部气候强迫的敏感性,例如火山爆发.
- 之前的建模研究表明火山硫酸盐气溶与ENSO之间存在联系,但观察证据是不确定的.
研究的目的:
- 调查在上个千年期间大火山爆发对ENSO的影响.
- 提供观测数据以验证ENSO对火山强迫反应的气候模型预测.
主要方法:
- 使用来自热带太平洋的绝对日期的化石珊瑚作为古气候档案.
- 应用叠加时代分析来评估ENSO在大火山爆发后的一年中的状态.
主要成果:
- 在火山爆发后的一年观察到类似厄尔尼诺现象的ENSO反应的轻微趋势.
- 这种趋势在统计学上并不显著.
- 即使在特别大的1257萨马拉斯喷发之后,也没有发现显著的ENSO反应.
结论:
- 研究结果表明,ENSO对火山强迫的反应可能比一些气候模型预测的要弱.
- 观察到的ENSO变异性可能会掩盖或大于对火山爆发的强制反应.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善气候模型,并更好地了解火山活动与ENSO之间的相互作用.
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