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人为变暖对新出现的北美大干旱的重大贡献
A Park Williams1, Edward R Cook2, Jason E Smerdon2
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA. williams@ldeo.columbia.edu.
概括
北美西南部2000年至2018年的干旱是自公元800年以来的第二个最干旱时期. 人类造成的气候变化显著加剧了这场严重的干旱,
科学领域:
- 古气候学
- 气候科学
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 北美西南部 (SWNA) 正经历21世纪的严重干旱.
- 这种干旱引发了与中世纪大干旱的比较, 并引发了气候变化作用的问题.
研究的目的:
- 在长期背景下评估2000-2018年SWNA干旱的严重程度.
- 量化人类气候变化对近期干旱的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用水文模型分析干旱情况.
- 开发了1200年的夏季土壤水分的树环重建.
- 使用气候模型输出来估计人为趋势.
主要成果:
- 2000年至2018年的干旱是自公元800年以来的第二个最干旱的19年期,仅次于15世纪后期的大干旱.
- 人类造成的气候变暖对干旱的严重程度有很大影响.
- 气候模型显示,人类影响造成了47%的干旱严重程度.
结论:
- 最近的SWNA干旱轨迹与历史的大干旱相似.
- 人为气候变化是目前南南亚地区严重干旱的主要驱动因素.
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