评估欧洲各地协调的COVID-19退出战略的影响
N W Ruktanonchai1,2, J R Floyd1, S Lai1
1WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. nrukt00@gmail.com jrf1g15@soton.ac.uk shengjie.lai@soton.ac.uk.
概括
协调缓解2019年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 限制措施可以延迟欧洲的疫情爆发. 同步封锁可以减少在整个大陆消除社区传播所需的时间.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策
- 数学模型
背景情况:
- 由于非药物干预,欧洲2019年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 病例的减少,需要关于放宽限制的指导.
- 随着各国考虑取消公共卫生措施,尽量减少再次爆发的风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化协调的退出策略对延迟整个欧洲的COVID-19复发的影响.
- 评估同步干预如何在整个大陆范围内限制社区传播.
主要方法:
- 利用移动性和病例数据来建模COVID-19传播动态.
- 模拟了各种协调和不协调的退出策略场景.
主要成果:
- 通过严格措施提前取消在互联网良好的国家的干预措施,可能会导致大陆的疫情在5周前再次爆发.
- 协调的战略大大提高了在整个欧洲消除社区传播的可能性.
- 在整个欧洲同步间歇性封锁可以将需要封锁的总数减少一半,以实现整个大陆的传播消除.
结论:
- 协调的退出策略对于管理欧洲COVID-19限制的缓解至关重要.
- 同步间歇性封锁提供了一种有效的方法来控制整个大陆的社区传播.
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