与过去的500年相比,目前的欧洲充满洪水的时期是特殊的
Günter Blöschl1, Andrea Kiss2, Alberto Viglione3
1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at.
Nature
|July 24, 2020
概括
近几十年来,欧洲经历了500年来最严重的洪水. 现在的洪水时代比过去的洪水更热,更有季节性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候科学
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 有关气候变化对河流洪水频率和规模的影响存在担忧.
- 历史数据表明过去欧洲有大量的洪水,但长期比较受到数据分辨率和序列数量的限制.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较最近几十年的欧洲长期洪水历史.
- 为了确定当前的洪水丰富性和特点是否前所未有的.
主要方法:
- 从欧洲各地的文献证据中编制一个新的100多个高分辨率 (次年度) 历史洪水数据库.
- 最近几十年的分析与这500年的洪水历史相比.
主要成果:
- 过去30年 (1990至2016年) 是欧洲过去500年来最严重的洪水之一.
- 与过去的洪水时期相比,最近的洪水时期的气温更高,洪水季节性更明显.
- 确定了九个不同的洪水时期及其相关地区,1560年至1580年,1760年至1800年,1840年至1870年被列为重要的过去事件.
结论:
- 由于气候变暖和季节性变化, 欧洲目前的洪水季节是特殊的.
- 需要先进的基于流程的洪水风险评估工具和适应性管理策略来应对洪水风险的最新变化.
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