全州学校关闭与美国COVID-19发病率和死亡率之间的关联
Katherine A Auger1,2,3,4, Samir S Shah1,2,3,4,5, Troy Richardson4
1Division of Hospital Medicine, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio.
JAMA
|August 4, 2020
概括
美国早期学校关闭显著降低了2019年新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的发病率和死亡率. 在COVID-19病例较低时实施关闭的州获得了最大的好处.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 流行病学
- 传染病控制
背景情况:
- 各州采取非药物干预措施,包括关闭学校,以减轻2019年新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的传播.
- 在COVID-19控制中,学校关闭的有效性和最佳时间在疫情开始时仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 调查学校关闭及其时间与美国COVID-19发病率和死亡率之间的联系.
- 量化早期和晚期学校关闭对人口水平COVID-19结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 一项基于美国人口的观察研究分析了2020年3月9日至2020年5月7日的数据.
- 使用间断时间序列分析,对其他非药物干预措施进行控制.
- 负二项回归模型评估了学校关闭时间与COVID-19发病率/死亡率之间的关联,按初始病例发病率分层.
主要成果:
- 学校关闭与每周COVID-19发病率 (-62%) 和死亡率 (-58%) 的显著降低有关.
- 在累计COVID-19发病率较低的关闭学校的州,积极影响最为明显.
- 较早关闭学校与每10万人口中病例减少128.7例和死亡减少1.5例有关.
结论:
- 在研究期间,美国的学校关闭与COVID-19发病率和死亡率的暂时降低有关.
- 较早的学校关闭,特别是当初COVID-19发病率较低时,产生了最实质性的减少.
- 虽然有效,但其他并发干预措施的贡献不能完全排除.
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