由于循环变化而导致的海洋变暖
Ben Bronselaer1,2,3,4, Laure Zanna5,6
1Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. benjamin.bronselaer@cantab.net.
Nature
|August 14, 2020
概括
全球变暖与累积的碳排放有关,海洋在热量和碳储存中发挥着关键作用. 海洋循环显著影响气候变暖模式, 但气候模型难以准确地代表这些复杂的过程.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学
- 气候模型
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 人为的全球表面变暖与累积的碳排放有关.
- 海洋的热量和碳储存受到海洋运输和循环的影响.
- 目前的气候模型在模拟观测到的海洋变暖模式和循环中表现出不准确.
研究的目的:
- 建立海洋热量与碳吸收之间的线性关系.
- 评估海洋循环变化对观测和模拟海洋变暖的影响.
- 评估气候模型在捕捉海洋变暖模式方面的表现.
主要方法:
- 建立了海洋热量与碳吸收之间的线性关系,
- 利用已建立的关系来分析海洋循环变化对海洋变暖模式的影响.
- 将观察到的海洋变暖模式与第五合模型对比项目 (CMIP5) 模型的模拟进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 历史上海洋变暖模式在很大程度上是由海洋热量再分配所塑造的,而CMIP5模型很难模拟.
- 预测的海洋储热模式主要由工业化前的海洋循环决定,而不是循环变化.
- 气候模型在模拟基于工业化前循环的热量储存方面表现出比热量再分配更好的技能.
结论:
- 通过循环重新分配海洋热量是历史海洋变暖模式的关键驱动因素,但在模型中表现不佳.
- 未来的海洋变暖模式可能更容易预测,主要是由工业化前的海洋循环决定的.
- 改善模拟海洋循环的气候模型准确性对于可靠的未来气候预测至关重要.
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