自1900年以来海平面上升的原因
Thomas Frederikse1, Felix Landerer2, Lambert Caron2
1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. thomas.frederikse@jpl.nasa.gov.
Nature
|August 21, 2020
概括
自1900年以来的全球海平面上升, 冰的质量损失是主要的驱动因素,具体事件与冰川融化和水储量变化有关.
科学领域:
- 地球和海洋科学
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 历史上的全球平均海平面上升评估缺乏观察到的变化与促成因素之间的协调.
- 之前的研究表明,海平面数据或贡献过程的限制很低.
- 观测数据和过程理解的改善需要重新评估.
研究的目的:
- * 通过概率框架和独立观察,重建自1900年以来的海平面.
- * 将观察到的海平面变化与关键物理过程的估计贡献相协调.
- * 确定20世纪海平面上升的主要驱动因素及其变化.
主要方法:
- * 开发一个概率框架来重建海平面.
- 使用独立的观测及其不确定性进行海平面变化估计.
- * 根据潮计记录重建全球和盆地级海平面.
主要成果:
- * 热膨胀,冰块质量损失和陆地水储量变化的总和与观察到的海平面一致.
- 自1900年以来,冰块的减少对海平面上升的贡献是热膨胀的两倍.
- * 冰川和格陵兰冰盖的质量损失导致了20世纪40年代的海平面上升;
- 自20世纪70年代以来海平面上升的加速归因于海洋热膨胀和格陵兰冰块质量损失的增加.
结论:
- 这项研究成功地将观察到的全球平均海平面上升与基于底层物理过程的估计相协调.
- 没有需要额外的不考虑的过程来解释自1900年以来的海平面变化.
- * 冰块流失和海洋热膨胀已被证实是当代海平面上升的主要驱动因素.
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