海洋食物的未来
Christopher Costello1,2, Ling Cao3, Stefan Gelcich4,5
1Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. costello@bren.ucsb.edu.
Nature
|August 21, 2020
概括
全球粮食需求正在上升. 可持续的海洋粮食生产,包括野生渔业和海洋养殖,到2050年可能增加36-74%,为未来的肉类需求做出重大贡献.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学
- 可持续的水产养殖
- 渔业管理
背景情况:
- 全球日益增长的粮食需求需要持续增加供应.
- 陆地粮食生产的扩大可能导致气候变化和生物多样性丧失.
- 目前只有17%的可食肉来自海洋.
研究的目的:
- 估计到2050年海洋来源的可持续生产潜力.
- 分析野生渔业,鱼养殖和双鱼养殖的贡献.
- 在各种需求和供应场景下预测未来的海鲜产量.
主要方法:
- 开发关键海洋粮食部门的"可持续供应曲线".
- 包括生态,经济,监管和技术限制.
- 将供应曲线与2050年的预期需求情景叠加起来.
主要成果:
- 到2050年,可持续的海鲜产量可能增加2千1百万至4千4百万 (增长36-74%).
- 这种增长相当于全球肉类需求预计增长的12-25%.
- 预计水产养殖将显示出最显著的生产增长.
结论:
- 海洋食品生产为满足日益增长的全球粮食需求提供了巨大的潜力.
- 实现这一潜力取决于政策改革,技术进步和需求转变.
- 渔业和水产养殖的持续增长对于未来的粮食安全至关重要.
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