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冰川冷却和气候敏感性重新评估
Jessica E Tierney1, Jiang Zhu2,3, Jonathan King4
1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. jesst@arizona.edu.
Nature
|August 28, 2020
概括
最后一个冰期最大 (LGM) 的全球降温为-6.1°C. 这种气候敏感度估计提升了对地球对温室气体和冰盖反应的理解.
科学领域:
- 古气候学
- 气候模型
- 地质化学
背景情况:
- 最后的冰川最大期是了解气候动态的关键时期.
- 由于代理数据的局限性,以前的研究在重建全面的LGM气候状态方面遇到了挑战.
研究的目的:
- 创建一个LGM温度的全场重建.
- 限制全球平均LGM冷却和平衡气候的敏感性.
主要方法:
- 用同位素支持的气候模型组合的地化学海面温度代理.
- 使用数据同化技术进行温度重建.
- 通过独立的代理和古气候数据验证重建.
主要成果:
- 产生了LGM温度的现场重建.
- 局限性全球平均LGM降温至- 6. 1°C (95% CI: - 6.5 至 - 5. 7°C).
- 在3.4°C (2.4-4.5°C) 估计的平衡气候敏感性,与共识范围保持一致.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了强大的数据同化LGM温度重建.
- 这些发现对气候敏感性进行了精确估计,对于未来的气候预测至关重要.
- 这项工作强调了将多种代理数据与气候模型整合的价值.
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