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蝶效应和自我调节的厄尔尼诺对全球变暖的反应

Wenju Cai^1,2, Benjamin Ng³, Tao Geng^4,3

¹Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography-Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China. Wenju.cai@csiro.au.

|September 4, 2020

概括

厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 条件的微小初始变化可能导致未来的变化极为不同. 这种蝶效应影响了ENSO对温室气体变暖的反应,早期抑制可能会增加未来的变化.

科学领域:

气候科学
海洋学
大气科学

背景情况:

厄尔尼诺和拉尼诺,被称为厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO),是极具后果和非线性气候现象.
埃尔尼诺的温暖异常比拉尼娜的寒冷异常更大.
温室气体变暖预计会增加ENSO事件的频率,但模型预测因内部变化而有很大差异.

研究的目的:

研究初始无限小的扰动对ENSO变性的影响.
了解ENSO的初始变化如何系统地影响其对未来温室气体变暖的反应.
探索在不同时间尺度上连接ENSO变化的自我调节机制.

主要方法:

使用了大量的气候模型,包括合模型相互比较项目的模型.
引入无限小的随机扰动到相同的初始条件来模拟蝶效应.
分析了ENSO热阻尼产生的累积海洋热量损失及其对海洋分层的影响.

主要成果:

对于初始条件的微小扰动会导致非常不同的初始ENSO变性.
较高的初始变异性导致较大的海洋热量损失,减少上层海洋分层.
在某些场景中,这种自我调节会在随后的温室变暖下使ENSO变异性增加得较小.

结论:

一个自我调节的机制将ENSO的时间变化联系在一起,影响其对气候变化的反应.
如果温室气体变暖引起的ENSO变化最初被内部变化所抑制,那么未来的ENSO变化可能会增加.
这一发现为在气候变化中跨越多个时间尺度的ENSO动态提供了新的视角.

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