全球粮食系统的排放可能阻碍实现1.5°和2°C的气候变化目标
Michael A Clark1, Nina G G Domingo2, Kimberly Colgan2
1Oxford Martin School and Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. michael.clark@ndph.ox.ac.uk.
概括
即使停止化石燃料排放也无法达到1.5°C的气候目标. 为了实现气候目标,全球粮食系统需要与非粮食部门一起进行重大变革.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
- 粮食系统分析
背景情况:
- 巴黎协定旨在将全球气温上升限制在工业化前的1.5°C或2°C.
- 减少温室气体排放,特别是化石燃料的排放,对于实现这些气候目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估全球粮食系统对实现"巴黎协定"气候目标的影响.
- 确定粮食系统的必要变化,以实现气候目标,独立于化石燃料排放.
主要方法:
- 模拟当前粮食系统趋势对温室气体排放的影响.
- 分析食品和非食品部门的减排情况.
主要成果:
- 目前的全球粮食系统趋势本身就无法达到1.5°C的目标.
- 如果化石燃料的排放持续下去,到本世纪末,粮食系统将面临2°C目标的威胁.
- 实现1.5°C的目标需要在包括粮食系统在内的所有部门进行快速,雄心勃勃的变革.
结论:
- 粮食系统是实现全球气候目标的重要,但往往被低估的障碍.
- 粮食生产和消费的实质性转型与减少化石燃料排放对于减缓气候变化一样重要.
- 实现气候目标需要从所有部门处理排放的整体方法,其中粮食系统发挥着关键作用.
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