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气候变暖对野生动物疾病风险的影响不同

Jeremy M Cohen^1,2, Erin L Sauer^3,2, Olivia Santiago³

¹Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA. jeremy3cohen@gmail.com.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|November 20, 2020

概括

气候变化影响野生动物的疾病风险. 寒冷地区的动物在温暖的天气中面临更高的风险,而温暖地区的动物在寒冷的天气中面临更高的风险,尤其是热带动物.

科学领域:

生态学
气候变化生物学
寄生虫学

背景情况:

近几十年来,野生动物疾病的爆发在全球范围内有所增加.
气候变化是一个可疑的驱动因素,但它对不同地区的疾病动态的影响尚未完全理解.
了解这些联系对于野生动物保护和疾病管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

研究气候变化如何影响全球野生动物种群中的寄生虫.
测试各种宿主寄生系统和地理位置的热不匹配假设.
在不同的气候变化场景下预测野生动物未来的疾病风险.

主要方法:

从7346个野生动物群体和2021个宿主-寄生虫组合中编制了全球寄生虫流行数据集.
每个人口的地理位置的综合当地天气和气候数据.
分析了温度异常和疾病风险之间的关系,根据宿主热量策略 (内热与外热) 和息地 (陆地与淡水) 进行区分.

主要成果:

来自凉爽气候地区的野生动物宿主在温度较高时患病风险增加; 来自温暖气候地区的宿主在温度较低时患病风险增加,支持热不匹配假说.
这种热不匹配效应在外热 (冷血) 主体中最为明显.
预计气候变化表明温带和热带地区的热带野生动物的疾病风险可能大幅增加.

结论:

气候变化引起的温度变化显著改变了野生动物的疾病风险,特别是生态热虫.
地理位置和宿主热生物学是决定未来疾病易感性的关键因素.
寄生虫的身份将影响疾病风险的预测变化.

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