推断政府针对COVID-19的干预措施的有效性
Jan M Brauner1,2, Sören Mindermann1, Mrinank Sharma3,4,5
1Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. jan.brauner@cs.ox.ac.uk soren.mindermann@cs.ox.ac.uk mrinank@robots.ox.ac.uk.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 16, 2020
概括
关闭学校,限制聚会和关闭企业是控制COVID-19传播的有效非药物干预措施. 停留在家的命令对减少病毒传播的影响较小.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 全球各国政府实施非药物干预措施 (NPIs) 制COVID-19.
- 不同的NPI在减少疾病传播方面的相对有效性尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 量化不同NPI在缓解COVID-19传播方面的有效性.
- 分析2020年1月至5月期间实施的NPI的影响.
主要方法:
- 收集多个国家NPI实施的时间表数据.
- 利用贝叶斯层次模型将NPI与国家病例和死亡数据联系起来.
- 进行了广泛的经验验证,以支持研究结果.
主要成果:
- 关闭教育机构显著减少了传播.
- 限制聚会的人数为10人或更少是有效的.
- 关闭面对面的企业大大减少了COVID-19的传播.
- 停留在家的命令对减少传播的影响相对较小.
结论:
- 关闭学校和限制聚会等特定的非公开活动是控制COVID-19的关键.
- 公共卫生战略应优先考虑具有显著影响力的干预措施.
- 对优化NPI组合的进一步研究是有必要的.
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