相关实验视频
Updated: Jul 18, 2026

05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
责任保险危机的原因
1Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 14104-6218.
概括
责任保险保费的大幅增加并不是由于勾结或预测错误. 相反,保费上最有可能与预期的未来负债损失的折扣价值增加有关.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 保险研究 保险研究
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 近年来,责任保险保费有显著和"戏剧性的"增加.
- 对于保险人和行业来说,了解这些保费上的驱动因素至关重要.
- 之前的假设包括保险商勾结,市场周期性和预测不准确性.
研究的目的:
- 调查最近责任保险保费激增的主要原因.
- 评估和拒绝保费增加的其他解释.
- 确定最可能导致观察到的保费上的因素.
主要方法:
- 分析行业数据,包括保费,损失和运营费用.
- 对保险市场动态的统计检查.
- 测试与勾结,周期性行为和预测错误有关的假设.
主要成果:
- 证据驳斥了那些声称勾结,周期性市场行为或系统预测错误是主要驱动因素的说法.
- 数据强烈表明,保费的"跳跃"与预期未来损失的变化有关.
- 预期负债损失的"折扣价值"已经增长,影响了当前保险费.
结论:
- 责任保险保费上升的最合理的解释是预期未来损失的当前价值的增加.
- 这一发现强调了长期损失预测和风险评估在保险定价中的重要性.
- 进一步的研究可能会探讨导致贴现期望负债损失增长的具体因素.
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