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气候变化带来的湖泊热浪
R Iestyn Woolway1,2, Eleanor Jennings3, Tom Shatwell4
1Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk Institute of Technology, Dundalk, Ireland. riwoolway@gmail.com.
Nature
|January 21, 2021
概括
由于气候变化, 湖泊热浪, 极端温暖的表面水, 将在全球范围内加剧和延长. 这对湖泊的生物多样性和生态系统服务构成重大风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候科学
- 石化技术
背景情况:
- 湖泊生态系统很容易受到温度变化和极端温度的影响.
- 人们对湖泊热浪及其在全球变暖下的未来知之甚少.
研究的目的:
- 调查1901年至2099年全球湖泊热浪的变化.
- 在不同的排放场景下预测未来湖泊热浪的强度和持续时间.
主要方法:
- 使用卫星观测和数字模型.
- 分析了全球数百个湖泊.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,湖泊热浪将变得更加热和持续时间更长.
- 在代表度路径 (RCP) 8. 5下,强度增加到5. 4°C,持续时间为95. 5天.
- 在RCP 2.6下,强度增加到4. 0°C,持续时间为27. 0天.
- 较深的湖泊会经历更长时间但不那么强烈的热浪.
结论:
- 湖泊热浪将加剧气候变暖,影响湖泊的物理和化学特性.
- 增加热浪的持续时间可能会导致某些湖泊的永久热浪状态.
- 威胁到水生生物多样性,生态系统的弹性和湖泊提供的重要社会利益.
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