基于年龄和血清状况的COVID-19疫苗优先级策略
Kate M Bubar1,2, Kyle Reinholt3, Stephen M Kissler4
1Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. kate.bubar@colorado.edu daniel.larremore@colorado.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 22, 2021
概括
对20至49岁的成年人优先使用严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 疫苗,减少了感染,同时对60岁以上的成年人进行疫苗接种,减少了死亡率和寿命损失. 检测之前的感染改善了疫苗的影响和公平性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 数学模型
- 疫苗学
背景情况:
- 严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 疫苗的初始供应有限,需要进行战略分配.
- 优先级策略显著影响疫苗计划控制疫情的有效性.
研究的目的:
- 对SARS-CoV-2的五种年龄分层疫苗接种优先级策略的影响进行比较.
- 评估血清检测在优化疫苗分配和减少不平等方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用数学模型来模拟不同年龄分层的疫苗接种优先级场景.
- 基于累计发病率,死亡率和失去了生命年的策略比较.
主要成果:
- 针对20至49岁的成年人优先使用的阻断传播疫苗使累积发病率降至最低.
- 在大多数情况下,优先为60岁以上的个体接种疫苗可以减少死亡率和生命损失.
- 针对个体水平的血清检测以确定血清阴性个体增强了每个疫苗剂量的影响,并解决了不平等问题.
结论:
- 最佳的SARS-CoV-2疫苗优先级策略取决于所需的结果 (例如,减少传播与死亡率).
- 包括血清检测可以提高疫苗的有效性并减轻健康差异.
- 该建模框架可适应各种国家特定环境,包括传播率和免疫水平.
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