通过船舶轨道数据高估的气溶云气候降温
Franziska Glassmeier1,2,3, Fabian Hoffmann3,4,5, Jill S Johnson6
1Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, Netherlands. f.glassmeier@tudelft.nl.
概括
人类产生的气溶可以改变云的反射性, 考虑降低云量对于气溶强迫的准确气候预测至关重要.
科学领域:
- 大气科学
- 气候科学
- 云物理
背景情况:
- 人类产生的气溶通过改变云的特性,特别是层积云层,对气候产生重大影响.
- 气溶引起的云量变化是气候预测中的一个关键不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估船舶轨道研究的可靠性,以估计人为气溶对层积云量的气候强迫作用.
- 量化从船舶轨道数据中得出的冷却效应过高估计,并评估云量变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 详细的数值模拟与层积云层的卫星观测的比较.
- 用气溶增强的云顶混合在不沉的层积云中的分析.
主要成果:
- 船舶轨道研究显著高估了人为气溶对层积云的降温效应,高达200%.
- 气溶诱导的层积云量减少可以抵消辐射冷却效应.
结论:
- 船舶轨道研究并不代表全球气候气溶对层积的强迫作用.
- 精确的气候强迫评估需要纳入气溶引起的层积云量减少的变暖效应.
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