热带气旋最近向海岸迁移
1Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BU, UK. shuai.wang@imperial.ac.uk.
概括
热带气旋在全球范围内越来越接近海岸, 这种从1982年至2018年观察到的趋势表明,全球沿海地区的旋风活动发生了重大变化.
科学领域:
- 气候学
- 天气学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 记录了全球热带气旋 (TC) 向极移动的情况.
- 这些变化对沿海地区的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查1982年至2018年沿海地区全球TC活动的变化.
- 分析相对于海岸线的TC强度,频率和轨道移动的趋势.
主要方法:
- 对1982-2018年全球TC轨道数据的分析.
- 对TC最大强度距离陆地的趋势分析.
- 评估每年的TC频率与海岸的接近关系.
- 检查TC轨道的移动 (纵向和度).
主要成果:
- 每十年,TC的最大强度接近陆地30公里.
- 每年全球TC频率每10年增加2次.
- 在TC轨道上观察到极向和西向的显著转移.
- 环境转向流量变化被认为是主要的驱动因素.
结论:
- 热带气旋活动正在向全球海岸线迁移.
- 观测到的变化对沿海居民和基础设施构成越来越大的风险.
- 大气转向流量的变化是影响这些轨道变化的关键因素.
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