在美国持续复发的COVID-19流行病的年龄组
Mélodie Monod1, Alexandra Blenkinsop1, Xiaoyue Xi1
1Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
概括
20-49岁的年轻人正在推动美国COVID-19传播的复苏. 针对这一年龄组的疫苗等干预措施是控制疫情和预防死亡的关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 传染病模型
背景情况:
- 2020年中期,美国和欧洲出现了新型冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 传播的复发.
- 了解年龄人口结构对于控制COVID-19和指导缓解公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析美国的特定年龄的流动趋势和COVID-19死亡率数据.
- 确定主要负责维持SARS-CoV-2传播的年龄组.
- 为制止复发的COVID-19流行病提供有针对性的干预策略.
主要方法:
- 分析了美国超过1000万个人的综合年龄移动数据.
- 移动趋势与特定年龄的COVID-19死亡数据的机制联系.
- 估计特定年龄的传播动态和繁殖数量.
主要成果:
- 截至 2020 年 10 月,年龄在 20 至 49 岁之间的个体是 SARS-CoV-2 重生传播的主要驱动因素,其繁殖数量显著超过一个.
- 估计有65%的COVID-19感染来自美国20至49岁的个人.
- 年轻年龄组的流动性与传播率的增加相关.
结论:
- 20至49岁的成年人对于控制当前的COVID-19传播动态至关重要.
- 针对这一群体的干预措施,包括阻止传播的疫苗,对于疫情控制至关重要.
- 这种有针对性的方法可以帮助防止进一步的COVID-19死亡,并阻止再次爆发.
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