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Updated: Nov 15, 2025

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在过去的千年中,由火山驱动的多年气候波动
Michael E Mann1, Byron A Steinman2, Daniel J Brouillette3
1Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, 514 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802-5013, USA. mann@psu.edu.
概括
这项研究没有发现内部多十年气候波动的证据. 古气候数据的明显波动是工业前火山活动的产物,而不是一个不同的气候周期.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 古气候学
- 气候模型
背景情况:
- 之前的研究提出了气候的内部多十年振荡 (40-60年).
- 最近的研究表明大西洋多年周期振荡是由人为驱动的.
- 目前的气候模型在控制模拟中缺乏强大的多十年振荡.
研究的目的:
- 在古气候数据中观察到的多十年振荡的起源.
- 确定这些振荡是否代表了内部气候系统的行为,
主要方法:
- 控制和强制的比较
- 上一个千年
- 气候模拟.
- 对古气候数据进行多十年振荡行为的分析.
- 模拟气候变化的频段分析.
主要成果:
- 古气候数据显示了工业前时代的多十年振荡行为.
- 在工业前的气候数据中明显的波动是火山活动脉冲的产物.
- 火山活动对50至70年频段有很大的影响.
结论:
- 没有令人信服的证据表明气候系统的内部多十年振荡.
- 观察到的多十年变化很可能是外部强迫的结果,特别是火山活动.
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