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在社区测试的SARS-CoV-2血统B.1.1.7病例中增加死亡率

Nicholas G Davies¹, Christopher I Jarvis²,

¹Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. nicholas.davies@lshtm.ac.uk.

|March 16, 2021

概括

在英国首次检测到的SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7变种显示传染性增加和死亡风险更高. 这种由S基因标失效 (SGTF) 识别的变异与以前存在的菌株相比增加了61%的死亡风险.

科学领域:

病毒学
流行病学
公共卫生

背景情况:

2020年9月,SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7系在英国出现,此后在全球传播.
虽然已确定B.1.1.7的传染性增加,但其对COVID-19疾病严重性的影响尚不清楚.
由于特定的PCR放大失败,S基因目标失败 (SGTF) 是识别B.1.1.7的一个关键指标.

研究的目的:

调查SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7变种是否与COVID-19死亡率的增加有关.
量化与B.1.1.7血统相关的疾病严重性的变化.
分析英格兰社区COVID-19病例和死亡的大量数据.

主要方法:

分析了英格兰2,245,263例阳性SARS-CoV-2社区测试和17,452例死亡病例 (2020年11月至2021年2月).
使用S基因标失败 (SGTF) 状态来确定B.1.1.7存在的51%的测试病例.
根据人口因素,养老院居住地,地点和测试日期进行统计建模,以估计死亡风险.

主要成果:

与非SGTF病例相比,SGTF病例的死亡风险估计高出55%.
这意味着在阳性测试后28天内,55-69岁男性的绝对风险从0.6%增加到0.9%.
考虑到错误分类和缺少的数据,B.1.1.7的死亡风险估计比之前存在的变种高61%.

结论:

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 变种与死亡风险显著增加有关.
结果表明B.1.1.7可能会导致更严重的疾病,并且更容易传播.
这凸显了监测病毒变异的重要性,以检测传播和疾病严重程度的变化.

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