湖北省的SARS-CoV-2指数病例的时间
Jonathan Pekar1,2, Michael Worobey3, Niema Moshiri4
1Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 19, 2021
概括
2019年10月中旬至11月中旬可能出现了首例严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 病例. 大多数类似的动物传染病是自我限制的,表明对传染病原体的监测缺陷.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 病毒学
- 基因组学
背景情况:
- 准确的SARS-CoV-2出现时间对于评估动物传染病原体监测和COVID-19制失败至关重要.
- 了解早期病毒动态可以为新型传染病爆发提供策略.
研究的目的:
- 确定SARS-CoV-2可能出现的间隔.
- 评估类似SARS-CoV-2的动物传染病的自我限制潜力.
- 确定目前对高度传染性病原体的动物病监测的局限性.
主要方法:
- 使用融合框架整合回顾性分子时钟推断.
- 使用先进的流行病学模拟来建模病毒循环.
- 分析基因组数据以估计 SARS-CoV-2 最新的共同祖先 (TMRCA) 的时间.
主要成果:
- 估计2019年10月中旬至11月中旬期间在中国湖北省出现了第一个SARS-CoV-2病例.
- 表明超过三分之二的潜在的SARS-CoV-2类动物性病例可能是自我限制的.
- 表明具有中等死亡率的高度传染性病原体对现有的动物病监测构成挑战.
结论:
- SARS-CoV-2 的早期出现和动态表明可能错过了制的机会.
- 目前的动物传染病监测可能不足以检测快速传播的中度致命病毒.
- 需要进一步完善监测策略,以应对新出现的传染病威胁.
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