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在气候变化中超越临界点
Paul D L Ritchie1, Joseph J Clarke2, Peter M Cox2
1College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Paul.Ritchie@exeter.ac.uk.
Nature
|April 22, 2021
概括
人类活动可能不会不可避免地导致不可逆转的气候转折点. 即使临时超过升温值,如果超值短暂,缓慢开始的倾斜元件也可能不会改变状态.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学
- 气候科学
- 古气候学
背景情况:
- 地球的气候系统包含了临界点, 关键的值可能导致不可逆转的变化.
- 人类活动导致的温室气体度上升可能会引发这些临界点.
- 之前的研究表明,像冰盖这样的倾斜元素的升温门很低,
研究的目的:
- 重新评估超越气候转折点值导致不可避免的不可逆转变化的假设.
- 调查时间尺度在倾斜元素对临时变暖过度反应中的作用.
- 在未来气候变化情景下评估引发倾斜事件的风险.
主要方法:
- 利用最近开发的关于临界点和系统状态变化的理论.
- 采用透明的简单模型的倾斜元素与定义的门.
- 模拟全球变暖轨迹达到峰值,然后稳定在工业化前水平的1.5°C.
主要成果:
- 证明暂时超过一个临界点值并不一定会导致系统状态的永久转变.
- 这表明超标的持续时间,相对于倾斜元素的时间表,是至关重要的.
- 发现缓慢开始的倾斜元素可能更适应短期的变暖过度.
结论:
- 在超过门时不可避免的倾斜事件的假设可能是有缺陷的,特别是对于缓慢发作的元素.
- 考虑倾斜因素和变暖超标的时间表对于准确的风险评估至关重要.
- 未来的气候变化风险评估必须考虑暂时超过门的动态.
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