对于甲的社会成本来说, 公平比气候不确定性更重要
Frank C Errickson1,2, Klaus Keller3,4, William D Collins5,6
1School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nature
|April 22, 2021
概括
甲 (SC-CH4) 的社会成本与新的气候科学相结合,导致美国政府以前使用的估计值较低. 这些更新的估值为气候政策和成本效益分析提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学
- 气候科学
- 综合评估建模
背景情况:
- 甲的社会成本 (SC-CH4) 量化了大气甲排放造成的经济福利损失.
- 现有的SC-CH4估计缺乏关键的科学发现和观察限制.
- SC-CH4对于成本效益分析和气候政策提供信息至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据最近的科学进展,估计甲 (SC-CH4) 的社会成本.
- 为气候政策和经济评估提供最新的SC-CH4估值.
主要方法:
- 在甲的辐射强迫计算中增加了25%.
- 使用校准缩小形式的全球气候模型和综合评估模型 (IAMs).
- 考虑了平衡气候敏感性和忽略了气候模型参数关系.
主要成果:
- 根据RCP 8.5,多个模型的SC-CH4平均值估计为933美元/,比美国联邦估计下降了22%.
- 在RCP 2.6下,平均SC-CH4降至710美元/CH4.
- 按股权加权的估计显示区域差异很大,例如,美国的CH4价格为8290美元/,撒哈拉以南非洲的CH4价格为134美元/.
结论:
- 更新的SC-CH4估计比以前的数字低得多,特别是当考虑股权时.
- 模型组合和甲循环子模型对SC-CH4估计有很大的影响.
- 这些发现为气候政策和经济决策提供了更强大的科学基础.
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