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巴黎气候协议和未来南极海平面上升
Robert M DeConto1, David Pollard2, Richard B Alley2,3
1Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA. deconto@geo.umass.edu.
Nature
|May 6, 2021
概括
限制全球变暖到2摄氏度可以防止南极冰川迅速消失. 然而,超过这一目标可能会导致冰盖不可逆转的退缩,并加速全球海平面上升.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 冰川学
- 海平面上升
背景情况:
- 巴黎协议的目标是将全球变暖限制在工业化前的1.5~2°C.
- 温室气体排放通过热膨胀和陆地冰的消失对全球平均海平面 (GMSL) 有重大影响.
- 南极冰层 (AIS) 是GMSL的主要贡献者,其冰损失加快,区域容易迅速退缩.
研究的目的:
- 调查"巴黎协定"温度目标对南极冰盖稳定的影响.
- 评估温度升高超过2°C的可能性,从而引发不可逆转的冰盖不稳定,加快海平面上升.
主要方法:
- 使用一个观察性校准的冰板架模型.
- 模拟各种全球变暖情景,包括与"巴黎协定"目标和当前政策一致的情景.
- 分析了导致的南极冰损失及其对GMSL的贡献.
主要成果:
- 如果将全球变暖限制在2°C或更低, 南极冰将继续以目前的速度消失.
- 超过2°C (例如3°C) 的变暖会导致2060年后冰块损失急剧增加,到2100年将为GMSL贡献约0.5厘米.
- 冰架的稀疏和损失导致了几个世纪的不可阻的冰盖退缩,
结论:
- 超过"巴黎协定"的温度目标可能会引发南极冰的迅速和不可逆转的消失.
- 这种冰的消失将极大地加快全球海平面的上升.
- 迫切遵守气候目标对于防止南极海平面上升至关重要.
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