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预计陆地冰对21世纪海平面上升的贡献
Tamsin L Edwards1, Sophie Nowicki2,3, Ben Marzeion4,5
1Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK. tamsin.edwards@kcl.ac.uk.
Nature
|May 6, 2021
概括
如果将全球变暖限制在1.5°C, 未来海平面上升可能会减少一半. 然而,在悲观的假设下,南极冰的消失可能会显著增加预测,要求对沿海洪水进行强有力的适应计划.
科学领域:
- * 气候科学
- * 冰川学
- * 海平面上升研究
背景情况:
- 准确的预测全球平均海平面上升 (SLR) 陆地冰对适应气候变化至关重要.
- 之前的预测使用过时的社会经济情景和气候模型,未能充分探索不确定性.
- 国际项目缺乏对模型不确定性和最新气候场景的协调探索.
研究的目的:
- *根据最新的社会经济情景估计陆地冰对SLR的贡献概率分布.
- * 量化不同全球变暖水平对未来海平面上升的影响.
- * 探索冰盖和冰川模型预测中的不确定性.
主要方法:
- * 统计模拟冰盖和冰川模型以生成大型投影集.
- 使用最新的社会经济情景来进行气候预测.
- * 通过各种计算机模型对不确定性进行协调探索.
主要成果:
- * 如果将变暖限制在1.5°C,与目前的承诺 (25cm SLE) 相比,陆地冰的中位数贡献将减少2100个 (13cm SLE).
- * 冰川占陆地冰总量的一半.
- * 南极冰的损失预测显示出很高的不确定性,风险回避的情景显示增加了五倍,导致目前政策的中位数为42厘米.
结论:
- 积极的气候缓解 (1.5°C的变暖) 显著减少了陆地冰层预计的海平面上升.
- 南极冰盖应对的高度不确定性需要考虑适应计划的最坏情况.
- 陆地冰的贡献不确定性需要强有力的沿海适应策略,直到气候政策和南极冰动态得到更好的限制.
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