喜马拉雅-卡拉科拉姆的冰川水文
Mohd Farooq Azam1, Jeffrey S Kargel2, Joseph M Shea3
1Discipline of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol 453552, India. farooqaman@yahoo.co.in.
概括
气候变化影响着喜马拉雅和卡拉科拉姆河流, 冰川和雪融化是关键因素, 预计到2050年,
科学领域:
- 气候学和水文学
- 冰层科学
- 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 喜马拉雅 - 卡拉科拉姆河是大约10亿人的重要水源.
- 了解气候变化对这些河流的影响对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.
- 冰川和雪地融化对香港地区的河流流量有很大影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估香港河流系统在气候变化中的现状和未来变化.
- 为决策者提供关于可持续水资源管理战略的信息.
- 评估香港不同河流流域冰川和雪融化的水文重要性.
主要方法:
- 分析冰川和融雪对河流流量的影响.
- 河流流失,冰川融化和流动季节性的建模.
- 在当前的水文模型和数据中发现知识缺口.
主要成果:
- 冰川和融雪是香港河流的重要水文组成部分.
- 印度河盆地比河和布拉姆普特拉河盆地更依赖融化水.
- 河流总流量,冰川融化和流量季节性预计将增加到20世纪50年代,但存在显著的不确定性.
结论:
- 显著的知识差距阻碍了流出组件和未来预测的准确建模.
- 为了改善水文模型,全面的现场和遥感观测是必不可少的.
- 解决不确定性对于香港地区有效的水资源管理至关重要.
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