在计算社会科学中整合解释和预测
Jake M Hofman1, Duncan J Watts2,3,4, Susan Athey5
1Microsoft Research, New York, NY, USA. jmh@microsoft.com.
Nature
|July 1, 2021
概括
计算社会科学融合了多种领域和方法. 这种观点建议结合解释和预测方法来实现更强大的科学发现.
科学领域:
- 计算社会科学
- 跨学科研究
- 数据科学
背景情况:
- 计算社会科学涉及大型数字数据集和先进的分析技术.
- 它代表了各种科学学科与不同的方法的融合.
- 现有的方法往往侧重于解释或预测,导致潜在的碎片化.
研究的目的:
- 澄清计算社会科学方法之间的差异.
- 为各种方法提出生产整合策略.
- 在研究中倡导结合解释性和预测性建模.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分析研究活动的方案.
- 根据解释 (因果效应) 和预测 (结果测试) 的维度对研究进行分类.
- 倡导结合预测和解释的"整合模型".
主要成果:
- 评估研究优先事项的二维方案 (解释与预测).
- 确定解释性和预测性研究目标之间的互补性.
- 提出"整合模型"作为统一的方法.
结论:
- 计算社会科学从整合不同的学科视角和计算方法中受益.
- 结合解释和预测的平衡方法增强了科学严谨性.
- 整合性建模为更全面,更有影响力的计算社会科学研究提供了途径.
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