疫情后:关于COVID-19未来发展轨迹的观点
Amalio Telenti1,2, Ann Arvin3, Lawrence Corey4
1Vir Biotechnology, San Francisco, CA, USA. atelenti@vir.bio.
Nature
|July 8, 2021
概括
严重急性呼吸系统冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 尽管有疫苗接种努力,但可能会流行. 免疫力下降和病毒演变等因素可能导致持续传播,需要有效监测以预防未来的流行病.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 病毒学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球疫苗接种工作旨在控制SARS-CoV-2大流行.
- 关于SARS-CoV-2的长期流行状况和季节性高峰的可能性存在不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 预测影响SARS-CoV-2向本土性转变的因素.
- 讨论在持续传播期间SARS-CoV-2的潜在演变.
- 识别必要的关键数据,以便做出明智的决定.
主要方法:
- 对以前流行病的观察情况进行回顾.
- 讨论SARS-CoV-2与人群免疫的演变.
- 对导致特有性持续性的因素的分析.
主要成果:
- 流行性持久性可能是由易受感染的群体,免疫力下降,病毒抗原漂移和动物感染的再入境引起的.
- 监测或应对不足可能导致新的流行病或流行病模式.
结论:
- 有效的监测和应对策略对于管理SARS-CoV-2作为流行病毒至关重要.
- 迫切需要具体数据来指导有关SARS-CoV-2未来的公共卫生决策.
- 提出一个面向未来的方法来应对当前的挑战.
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