2020年美国COVID-19的负担和特征
Sen Pei1, Teresa K Yamana2, Sasikiran Kandula2
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. sp3449@cumc.columbia.edu.
Nature
|August 26, 2021
概括
2020年,COVID-19流行病感染了大约三分之一的美国人口,主要城市的社区感染率达到顶峰. 感染死亡率逐年下降
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生模型
- 传染病的发展动态
背景情况:
- 2020年,COVID-19大流行对美国产生了重大影响,造成了广泛的健康和经济破坏.
- 虽然报告了许多流行病学特征,但缺乏对美国大流行病负担和特征的全面量化.
研究的目的:
- 在2020年全面量化美国的COVID-19总体负担和特征.
- 通过数据驱动的模型推断方法估计病毒的关键性,时间变化的流行病学特性.
主要方法:
- 采用数据驱动的模型推断方法在美国县级模拟COVID-19流行病.
- 估计的随时间变化的流行病学特性,包括确诊率,人口易感性,社区感染率和感染死亡率.
主要成果:
- 在美国,COVID-19的国家确诊率从3月的11.3%增加到2020年12月的24.5%.
- 到2020年底,人口易感率达到69.0%,这表明大约三分之一的美国人口已被感染.
- 在全国范围内,社区感染率超过0.8%,在大都市地区达到2.4%,而感染死亡率降至0.3%.
结论:
- 该研究提供了2020年美国COVID-19流行病负担和动态的全面量化.
- 这些发现突显出全年感染率和人口易感性增加,同时感染死亡率下降.
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