战斗的意愿
1Scott Atran is an emeritus director of research at the French National Center for Scientific Research, Paris, France; a senior research associate at the Changing Character of War Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; and adjunct professor at the Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
概括
了解战斗的意愿需要承认神圣的价值观和精神力量的关键作用, 忽视这些因素会导致不准确的预测和难以解决的安全问题.
科学领域:
- 政治科学
- 军事战略
- 社会学
背景情况:
- 最近在阿富汗和伊拉克的军事结果显示, 敌人的决心令人惊地被低估,
- 情报评估经常将"战斗的意愿"标记为不可衡量的,
- 政治和军事领导人经常低估研究强调神圣的价值观和精神力量在战斗的有效性.
研究的目的:
- 在军事和政治决策中低估精神力量和神圣价值观.
- 在评估战斗意愿时, 挑战对工具性,功利性理性的狭关注.
- 突出非实用性因素在理解冲突动态方面的重要性.
主要方法:
- 审查政治和军事领导人的声明和评估.
- 分析关于神圣价值观和精神力量的现有研究.
- 对安全研究中普遍存在的合理选择框架的批评.
主要成果:
- 政治和军事领导人经常低估神圣价值观和精神力量的研究.
- 这种忽视导致了对战意愿的误判.
- 狭的实用理性阻碍了对威胁的准确评估.
结论:
- 战斗的意愿受到神圣的价值观和精神力量的显著影响.
- 纳入这些因素对于克服安全挑战至关重要.
- 未来的分析必须采取更广泛的视角,
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