英国的非药物干预,疫苗接种和SARS-CoV-2三角体变异:数学建模研究
Raphael Sonabend1, Lilith K Whittles2, Natsuko Imai1
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 31, 2021
概括
英格兰的COVID-19路线图成功抵消了疫苗接种的初始传播增加. 然而,德尔塔变种需要推迟完全取消非药物干预措施 (NPIs),以防止大量入院.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 数学模型
- 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 英格兰的COVID-19路线图概述了与疫苗接种一起逐步放宽非药物干预措施 (NPIs).
- SARS-CoV-2 Delta 变种的出现给计划中的重新开放策略带来了重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估英格兰COVID-19路线图政策对疫情轨迹的影响.
- 模拟特尔塔变种和疫苗接种对未来可能出现的COVID-19浪潮的影响.
- 评估不同放松NPI的时间表.
主要方法:
- 利用扩展疫苗接种和多菌株动态的数学传播模型,包括德尔塔变种.
- 通过贝叶斯证据综合利用英语监测数据 (住院患者,占用率,血清流行率,PCR测试) 校准模型.
- 在各种NPI放松方案和混合场景下模拟的流行病轨迹.
主要成果:
- 路线图最初抵消了传播的增加,但德尔塔变种的更高传染性构成了风险.
- 如果在2021年6月21日完全取消NPI,可能会导致每日入院人数达到3900人;延迟到7月19日将这一数字降至1400人.
- 疫情轨迹显示对Delta的传染性,混合水平和疫苗有效性的敏感性.
结论:
- 通过平衡NPI放宽时间和疫苗接种覆盖范围,可以减少COVID-19入院.
- 即使疫苗接种覆盖率很高,也可能需要继续进行NPI,以防止进一步的疫情浪潮.
- 在政策放松期间,对令人担忧的变种,疫苗的有效性和吸收的持续监测至关重要.
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