边缘油的碳影响来自市场需求冲击
Mohammad S Masnadi1, Giacomo Benini2, Hassan M El-Houjeiri3
1Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. m.masnadi@pitt.edu.
Nature
|November 4, 2021
概括
减少石油需求对碳强度的影响不同, 较小的需求下降取代了高碳重型原油,而较大的冲击对碳强度的影响较小.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 能源政策
- 经济学
背景情况:
- 新的石油开采技术增加了石油资源的可变性,并使全球石油供应的碳足迹多样化.
- 之前的生命周期评估 (LCA) 研究没有考虑上游排放异质性,假设石油需求下降将取代平均原油.
研究的目的:
- 探索边际原油来源对生命周期温室气体排放的影响.
- 确定对石油需求下降最敏感的生产商的上游碳强度 (CI),特别是由于转向替代车辆.
主要方法:
- 对1933个油田 (约占2015年世界供应的90%) 的生产利能力进行了经济计量模型与其生产CI相关联.
- 在三个不同的石油市场结构下,研究了这些油田对需求下降的反应.
主要成果:
- 小规模的需求冲击 (下降2.5%) 主要取代了重型原油,其CI比全球平均水平高25-54%.
- 随着更大的需求冲击,CI影响的差异会减少.
- 市场结构和具有市场力量的生产商的协调反应影响了产业共同体对需求下降的影响.
结论:
- 减少石油需求所带来的碳排放效益并不均,而且在很大程度上取决于需求减少的程度.
- 全球石油市场结构在决定石油消费减少的碳足迹方面起着至关重要的作用.
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