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自最后一个冰河最大期以来的全球表面温度
Matthew B Osman1, Jessica E Tierney2, Jiang Zhu3
1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. mattosman@arizona.edu.
Nature
|November 11, 2021
概括
超过24000年的气候变化显示了由冰盖,温室气体,海洋循环和阳光带来的温度变化. 与古气候记录相比, 现代气候变暖的速度和规模是前所未有的.
科学领域:
- 古气候学与地球系统科学
- 气候建模和数据同化
背景情况:
- 了解过去的气候变化对于预测未来地球系统对外部强迫的反应至关重要.
- 之前使用气候模型和代理数据的研究已经得出了有关过去气候变化的矛盾结论.
研究的目的:
- 在过去的2万4千年里,
- 确定在此期间导致温度变化的主要气候机制.
- 将最近的变暖趋势与长期的古气候变化进行比较.
主要方法:
- 用古气候数据同化结合气候模型模拟和代理数据.
- 对表面温度变化进行了200年分辨率的重新分析.
- 分析的重点是冰盖和温室气体的辐射强迫,以及海洋循环和阳光照射的变化.
主要成果:
- 温度变化主要是由辐射强迫和海洋/阳光照射变化驱动的.
- 全球平均气温自全新世纪初以来稳步上升约0.5°C.
- 与过去24,000年相比, 现代气候变暖的速度和程度是前所未有的.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了过去24,000年气候变化的统一观点.
- 当在长期的古气候背景下观察时,现代变暖的速度和程度都是异常的.
- 这项研究强调了当前气候趋势与自然变化有很大不同.
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